The Historical Low Water Events Update provided today by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is attached.
The reading at the Carrollton Gage (New Orleans) at 1300 hours today was 3.16 feet with a change over the last 24-hours of + 0.62 feet. Today’s long-range forecasts for the Carrollton Gage indicates stages will begin a very slow but steady fall down to 2.0 feet (November 15, 2022).
The following details are reproduced from the attached report:
“Low water conditions continue on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers with a few locations preliminarily breaking modern day low water records from Cairo, IL to Memphis, TN.
Yesterday, Cairo, IL reached 4.83ft which breaks the July 1988 level of 4.93ft and Memphis, TN reached -10.79ft which breaks the July 1988 level of -10.70ft. The records will be preliminary until confirmed by the US Army Corps of Engineers.
Both locations have started rising again as periodic stage fluctuations progress down the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Over the next several days, stage fluctuations due to lock and dam operations may cause locations from Cairo, IL to Memphis, TN to temporarily fall below modern day low water records.
The river levels from Cairo, IL to Memphis, TN are now representative of 1988 levels while locations downstream are closer to 2012 levels.
No rainfall is expected over the next several days but a cold front will move through the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys early next week. This front may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over parts of Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
The 16 day future rainfall model is not showing much runoff response to the rainfall for next week. The current long range models continue to show 1988 to 2012 levels for the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers through the second week of November.
The attached file has the current river stage, the lowest 28 day forecast stage, and historical stages from previous low water events.
We’ll send another update on Thursday.”
Please see the attachment for complete details.
Best Regards,
Sean
Sean M. Duffy, Sr.
Executive Director
Standing By Channel: (504) 338-3165
Big River Coalition
