The Historical Low Water Events Update provided today by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is attached.
The Carrollton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1300 hours today was 2.73 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.13 feet. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecast stages to continue a slow rise to 3.7 feet on November 14 and then to begin a slow fall to 3.1 feet on December 2 (2022).
The following details are reproduced from the attached report:
“Rainfall over the past two weeks continues to keep river stages above modern day records that were established a couple of weeks ago. Additional rain this weekend will continue that trend.
River conditions from Cairo, IL to Baton Rouge, LA continue to be 1 to 2 feet above 2012 levels.
For today and tomorrow, a cold front with decent moisture will produce a large area of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Louisiana and Mississippi extending north through Missouri and Iowa. The rainfall should generate enough runoff to keep the Mississippi River levels above 2012 levels through the first week of December.
The weather models are hinting at another frontal boundary moving over the upper Mississippi Valley and bringing another round of beneficial rainfall for next weekend.
The 16 day future rainfall model is showing rises of several feet on the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers during the third week of November. The rises would approach Baton Rouge, LA and New Orleans, LA by the end of November and keep all locations on the lower Mississippi River well above 2012 levels.
The attached file has the current river stage, the lowest 28 day forecast stage, and historical stages from previous low water events..”
Please see the attachment for complete details.
Sean M. Duffy, Sr.
Standing By Channel: (504) 338-3165
Big River Coalition